Stormont Negotiations: Failure or Indicator of Progress?

For the first week and a half I was here, much of the interest in the local press (seems like the American newspapers didn't publish much, if anything) was on the five party negotiations between the five major parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly (Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Fein, Ulster Unionist Party, Social Democratic and Labour Party, and Alliance Party). These negotiations were the biggest talks since the 2006 St. Andrews Accords (that brought together the parties to form a lasting Executive and Parliament over consensus on recognizing the authority of the Police Service Northern Ireland and full commitment to non-violent means) and were organized to find solutions to the social issue parts of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (which agreed to a power sharing executive and parliament between Unionist and Nationalist parties) which were still outstanding. An American diplomatic team consisting of former Ambassador to Northern Ireland Dr. Richard Haas and Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations Dr. Meaghan O'Sullivan, had been invited by First Minister Peter Robinson (DUP) and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness (SF) to Belfast this summer has been on the ground for the last 3 months trying to find consensus on three main topics: Flags & Symbols, Parades, and the legacy of the Troubles (ie definition of "victim" vs "terrorist," unsolved murders, cultural narrative, etc).

I had been following the talks for the two and a half months prior to my arrival, and was well aware of the difficulty with which the negotiations had been mired, coming on the heels of a difficult year regarding all of the outstanding issues (see earlier post regarding the controversies over cultural celebration/community commemoration). Yet, I was excited to have been here as the discussions were coming to an end to be seeing how things would be received on the ground, first person observing. With the Unionists in such a siege mentality, dug in to their positions, progress had stalled on the particulars and wording. In a long, drawnout process, the Haas team had held discussions with most of the stakeholders across the provinces and gone back and forth with the political parties in determining their positions and what they would be willing to give and take. 7 drafts of a proposed agreement ended up being on the table, in the end rejected by both of the major parties who claimed the drafts "had major problems that made the agreement unworkable." By contrast, the nationalist parties seemed content with most of what was proposed, leaving it up to what the Unionists were willing to concede on.

Major concerns seemed to revolve around the power limitations invested in the new Parades Commission; wording of proposed "immunity" for a truth and reconciliation program (modeled on South Africa's successful example); and complete disagreement on the flags controversy. Unionists demanded the Union Jack be returned to its place in Belfast City Hall, ruling out both proposals for co-recognition and flying of the Irish Tri-Colour, and a new "Ulster" flag to be a rallying symbol for both Unionists and Nationalists (despite the precedent of Wales and Scotland each having their own flags).

The originally proposed deadline was Christmas, but was forced to be pushed back to New Years. The American team went home for Christmas expressing doubt whether they would return, putting further pressure on the posturing and deadlock which had characterized the talks up to that point, and leaving the decision squarely on the attitudes and answers to questions which had been posed to each of the parties on their departure. They returned a few days after Christmas, jumping back into the fray and looking to New Years as the new deadline. Because the type of last minute expectation
of reaching a deal is not unusual (the 1998 Belfast Agreement for example was given a deadline of the friday before Easter. Most of the work done on hashing acceptable terms was in the last week with the last few days a stressful and exhausting ordeal, word of a deal by the last party reached close to the wire through strong leadership exhibited by UUP's David Trimble), there was an expectation all around that an agreement would be reached. In the end, there was disappointment as it was announced on the 1st that an agreement had not been reached and the American teams were heading home.

The biggest holdout in these talks was the First Minister's own party, the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party), which historically has engaged in obstructionist politics (the Sunningdale strike in 1974, the Anglo-Irish agreement of 1996, the walkout of the peace talks in 1997, and the push for "No" on the 1998 referendum, are several examples prior to their taking power in the country). While the DUP is certainly not the same party as once it was, there is nontheless the appearence that the DUP believes that concessions made to secure an agreement would not be able to be sold to their electorate, especially the Loyalist members who believe their culture is being sold-out to Nationalist interests. An editorial in the Belfast Telegraph just after the talks lambasted First Minister Robinson as less of a leader and more of an administrator. Certainly Robinson faced extreme dissension within party ranks, concerned about another fracture. While Nationalists comprise only two parties, the Unionists are already divided among 4 parties with none presenting a roadmap to a shared future that would benefit both of the divided communities in NI. Robinson does not possess the charisma and ability to gather followers as his predecessor Ian Paisley did. Sadly all around leadership with a unique vision and the ability to convince their party membership and electorate is a feature lacking in all of the major parties. So the status quo remains, as evidenced by the many problems which has plagued power sharing characterized by
distrust is combined with a jockeying for a lions share of the scarce resources.

As disappointing and potentially indicative of a failure as the negotiations are in some circles being portrayed,I prefer to see the talks as progress of a small scale. From just looking at the talks themselves it is perfectly reasonable to see them as gloom and doom. Looking at them from the perspective of the entire past 5 decades of history however shows the talks to have been a mere setback, and amazing progress from where Northern Ireland once was. Sure the machinery is riddled with inefficiency and sectarian polarization, the fact is that the bureacratic machinery still exists and is providing the day to day running of the infrastructure of Northern Ireland. Socially there is still a very divided society; yet that is to be expected in a place where divisions were long embedded and distrust of the other side ran rampant. It is slowly getting better. That these politicians are sitting together in the same room and discussing their differences is a testament to change. More discussions like these are needed and an evolution over more time to tackle these remaining thorny issues.